Will the EU formally open the first negotiating cluster in Ukraine’s accession talks by 30 June 2027

It happened.

Ukraine applied to join the EU in 2022 and is now a candidate country. Accession talks are split into groups of policy areas called clusters, and opening the first one is the formal start of the negotiations. This forecast asks whether the EU’s member states will agree to open that first cluster by 30 June 2027. It resolves yes if the Council of the EU announces it on or before that date.

Closes 31 May 2027. Settled by consilium.europa.eu.