Will Sinn Féin lead outright in the first Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll published in December 2026?

How likely is it? Give your forecast and join the debate on Krowdcast.

Settles Yes if Sinn Féin's first-preference share is higher than every other party's in the first Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll published in December 2026. A tie for first settles No, and Independents and others do not count as a party. The October poll had Sinn Féin on 19%, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil on 18%. If no poll is published in December, the last Ireland Thinks poll of 2026 is used.

Closes 30 Nov 2026. Settled by Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll.