Will Aontú reach 9% or more in the first Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll published in December 2026?

How likely is it? Give your forecast and join the debate on Krowdcast.

Settles Yes if Aontú's first-preference share is 9% or more in the first Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll published in December 2026; 8% or less settles No. Aontú was on 8%, a record for the party, in both the September and October polls. If no poll is published in December, the last Ireland Thinks poll of 2026 is used.

Closes 30 Nov 2026. Settled by Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll.