Will Ukraine conduct at least one confirmed long-range strike on a Russian oil refinery between October 17 and November 15, 2026?

How likely is it? Give your forecast and join the debate on Krowdcast.

Settles Yes if credible reports from major outlets (Reuters, BBC, AP, Ukrainian General Staff) confirm at least one successful or claimed strike on Russian refining infrastructure in the period; No if none reported.

Closes 15 Nov 2026. Settled by Reuters / BBC / Ukrainian official statements.